For months, I’ve had the first 300 words of a feature titled ‘Verstappen’s primed to produce something special’ sitting on my laptop.
It was started during the Chinese Grand Prix weekend back in March, just the second round of the season, when McLaren already looked to have a clear advantage over Red Bull. But that weekend revealed bigger weaknesses in the RB21, and it remained a draft.
Then he won in Japan, and it seemed too obvious at that point to complete such a piece, particularly as it meant Verstappen arrived at the next round in Bahrain just one point off the championship lead.
By the time I’d returned to writing more in-depth about the Dutchman and his driving, it was following his aberration at the Spanish Grand Prix, when he went from being a race win behind Oscar Piastri in the points to effectively two. His red mist moment had ruined the argument I wanted to make at the time, as an aggressive strategy and impressive drive paled into insignificance, and he turned another solid score into a penalty.
Given he only picked up one podium between then and the end of the summer break – at the next round in Canada – the chance of that special achievement had all but disappeared.
And yet, the past three race weekends have got me feeling it really could be back on the cards. Max Verstappen could still win this drivers’ championship, and pull off what would be an almighty upset given the machinery he’s had for the majority of the season.
The odds are still massively stacked against him, of course. Verstappen currently sits 63 points adrift of Piastri in the drivers’ championship, with 174 still to play for over the final quarter of the season. But since the summer break, Verstappen has scored 86 out of the maximum 100 points that were on offer, despite clearly being unable to challenge the McLarens in Zandvoort.
A win wasn’t possible in Singapore once he couldn’t get past George Russell at the start, but despite fighting a car with gearbox inconsistencies, Verstappen was still putting pressure on the Mercedes mid-race, and crossed the line just 5.4 seconds behind the race winner while defending from Lando Norris.
As Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies noted after the checkered flag on Sunday, the race weekend at Marina Bay had proven the recent gains are not just specific to low downforce circuits. After upgrades in Baku and Singapore, Red Bull has its car in a better window across all venues.
For McLaren, the low degradation of Monza and Baku, plus the bumps and curb-riding of the last two venues, had not played to its strengths. But the performance gap had also clearly closed, and there’s every chance Red Bull will have a car capable of getting at least close at the majority of tracks.
Verstappen remains a championship long-shot, but recent gains by Red Bull – coupled with concerns from McLaren about some of the upcoming tracks – mean the door is still open. Clive Mason/Getty Images
McLaren team principal Andrea Stella fears COTA might not be the strongest circuit for his team either, pointing to Brazil, Qatar and Abu Dhabi as best-suiting the car available to Piastri and Norris. And if that prediction rings true, then Verstappen has two race weekends to come where he could possibly close that gap further.
A margin of 63 points understandably sounds big, but that figure stood at 104 just three races ago. Unlikely as it may be, take another 41 points out of Piastri across the next three and the gap would be 22 heading to Las Vegas – a track where McLaren also expects to struggle.
Yes, that sounds fanciful. But who would have predicted the points reduction that was to come heading to Monza, kicking off a run of tracks where Red Bull had been nowhere a year ago?
And there are other dynamics at play that reinforce the feeling that Verstappen could still be a threat. One is the performance of Mercedes in Singapore, showing that there is another team that could create bigger points differentials if circumstances align. That goes both ways and could see either Piastri or Norris pull further clear quickly, but it’s an element that McLaren rarely had to deal with for most of the season. Only three times did it fail to win in the opening 15 rounds, and each was a standalone occurrence. McLaren is now winless in the past three.
There’s also the internal situation at McLaren, where two drivers are looking to secure their first title, and balancing the need to beat their teammate with a desire to retain team harmony, with long-term futures in mind. As just 22 points separate the pair, McLaren can’t throw its weight behind one car right now in the way that Red Bull was able to in order to repel a fightback last year.
As a four-time world champion trying to embark on a remarkable comeback, Verstappen has nothing to lose. This title was out of his reach long ago, and if it remains that way, he has the previous successes under his belt – successes that give him far greater experience of the pressure that is to come than the two McLaren drivers have.
Norris’ victory in the season-opener in Australia marked the first time the Dutchman had been headed in 1,029 days, and Verstappen has not hit the front at any point this season. Yet team members said there was a shift in his demeanor in Baku, when there suddenly appeared to be something to chase.
For the McLaren drivers, while they see each other as clearly their biggest rivals when it comes to the drivers’ championship, the fact that Verstappen is even the smallest of threats adds an extra level of pressure. There aren’t many drivers in racing that you have full confidence will take opportunities if provided with them, but Verstappen is certainly one of those, so Piastri and Norris will know they need to make sure they don’t offer any up.
Verstappen remains a huge outsider, but Red Bull looks to have made just enough of a step forward to put him in the frame at the majority of circuits. His mere presence will add further jeopardy to every race weekend for the McLaren pair, and while actually overhauling them still seems unfathomable, can you really ever write him off?
